Here's what I think of everyone's chances
Alberto Del Rio- Obviously a big name going into this with a great chance of winning. However Del Rio recently won a number one contender's match so perhaps if Punk were to beat Cena Vince will come out and say Del Rio was the number one contender anyway and Del Rio may fight Punk for the title to win there and then. So perhaps Del Rio does not need to win this match.
Rey Mysterio- The LEAST likely guy to win this match, Rey is over and does not need this win nor can I see him fitting as a serious contender into the title scene right now. He wasn't even there on last week's Raw anyway and I wouldn't even be shocked if someone else was given his slot.
Evan Bourne- I feel he has a very slim chance of winning but it is still a possibility. But I feel Bourne will play the Shelton Benjamin type role where his role is to pull off all the spots and make the match amazing and memorable and put in a stellar performance but not to be the guy holding the briefcase at the end.
The Miz- Obviously has a big chance, he won last year but Punk won two years in a row so that doesn't lessen his chances. He has recently become less prominent on Raw since losing the title so perhaps this will be the big win they need to give him to make us remember that he is still one of Raw's top dogs, plus him and Riley could feud with the briefcase.
Alex Riley- I thnik this guy has a big chance going in as well, he is on the rise and they clearly have faith in the guy. A big win like this would give the fans more familiarity with him and would add something to his WWE resume so far to give his character some history.
Jack Swagger- Swagger has won before but nobody remembered, I feel that he has a slim chance of winning but if he were to win they would bring out the angle of him doing it this time to be remembered and how he is a force to be reckoned with.
Kofi Kingston- The high flying midcarder is put in this match for the spots but that does not mean he does not have a chance of winning. I would rank his chances as medium-high. He has an excellent belt history and has done everything to do in the midcard, perhaps this is his time to shine and he has the fanbase and fan familiarity to make a good MITB winner.
R-Truth- Big chance of winning, he has been on a role recently even beating Cena. However I can see truth winning. Morrison returns and says to put the briefcase on the line seeing as Truth put him out of action its only fair, Truth doesn't want to be seen as a coward so accepts again and loses. The conspiracy storyline continues and Morrison gets the briefcase.
Wade Barrett- Big chance of winning, he has fronted the original Nexus and the Corre and now needs something to do upon losing the IC title, the timing could be convenient.
Daniel Bryan- Big chance of winning, I can see Bryan winning the MITB and he could somehow make promo's tying it in to CM Punk and Cobana, how the ROH guys are taking over etc.
Cody Rhodes- Big chance of winning but I feel as he is one of the most deserving they won't let him win to "surprise" us which would kind of suck as I really would like to see him win it.
Justin Gabriel- The high flyer thrown in to spice the match, slim chance of winning. I would say he is Smackdown's Evan Bourne.
Heath Slater- Smallest chance of winning but getting into the match is a brilliant opportunity for him. Either Slater or Gabriel winning could create some great promo's mocking Barrett but I don't see it as a likely occurrence.
Kane- Medium- High chance of winning. He has a chance because on the SD spoilers it seems as if they are spicing up his personality somewhat so perhaps the monster can begin to terrorize Orton or Christian.
Sin Cara- Big chance of winning but he is the guy I least want to win. He could have just been put in for his moves (cough Botches.) They seem to have a lot of faith in this guy and are pushing him fast (and pushing him down our throats) so I could fully see him winning this match. In fact I would almost say he is the favourite
Sheamus- Another guy with a big chance. He has won the KOTR before but that does not mean he cannot win this match. The only reason I think he might not is that I can imagine him winning the Royal Rumble instead. You can never count out Sheamus though and he is so hilarious on the mic that it would be bloody funny to see him cut promo's to the champion. Plus he is probably the guy who can get the most reaction out of any of the listed and the guy who can really pull off a main event match.